World Bank to review complaint over Tajikistan’s Rogun dam
Uzbek, Turkmen communities warn of environmental fallout and regional instability from $350 million hydropower project
TASHKENT, Uzbekistan (MNTV) — The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to investigate a formal complaint lodged by environmental and community groups in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan over the potential social and ecological risks of Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) — a massive infrastructure initiative that could drastically alter Central Asia’s fragile water balance.
The complaint, submitted by the regional coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, focuses on a $350 million World Bank loan and related assistance provided to Tajikistan to revise environmental and social impact assessments (ESIAs) for the long-delayed project.
Complainants argue that the revised assessments remain based on decade-old assumptions, failing to reflect downstream impacts on the Vakhsh River, a vital tributary of the Amu Darya basin.
According to The Times of Central Asia, complainants say the project’s current framework underestimates the risks to Uzbek and Turkmen communities, where millions depend on the seasonal flow of water for farming and daily life.
Preliminary World Bank figures suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could cut flows to the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers per year — up to a 25% reduction in current inflows.
Such a drop could worsen desertification, raise soil salinity, and lead to further land degradation in areas already suffering from the ecological legacy of Soviet-era irrigation schemes.
Villages in the lower Amu Darya basin have long faced dust storms, health issues, and failing crops linked to the shrinking of the Aral Sea.
Local farmers warn that altered river flow patterns — especially if water is stored in winter instead of released during the spring and summer growing seasons — could devastate irrigation cycles.
Without access to water during planting periods, they fear economic collapse, migration pressures, and social instability.
Environmental analysts have also expressed concern about the cumulative impact of the Rogun dam combined with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa Canal, which aims to divert water from the same basin.
No regional impact study has yet been carried out to examine the combined effect of both projects on hydrology, biodiversity, and water security.
The World Bank’s own climate projections warn that water availability in Central Asia could shrink by 15% to 30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation funding.
In light of these risks, Rivers Without Boundaries is urging the World Bank and other financiers — who have committed over $1 billion collectively — to suspend further funding until an independent, transparent risk review is conducted. The group is also calling for:
- A study of alternative dam designs, including lower height models
- Public consultations with all Amu Darya basin countries
- Legally binding regional water-sharing agreements
- Equitable compensation for impacted communities.
Failure to act, the coalition warns, could trigger an irreversible humanitarian and ecological crisis across a region already grappling with water scarcity and climate stress.
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