Weaker Modi retains power in India amid resurgent opposition

As India navigates this new political landscape, the coming months will be crucial in determining the direction of its governance and economic policies.

By Iftikhar Gilani

In a dramatic reversal of exit poll predictions, the Hindu nationalist ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has struggled to maintain its stronghold in the general elections.

The vote counts revealed a significant shift in voter sentiment, with the BJP falling short of the 272-majority mark, a notable decline from its previous dominance.

The BJP secured 241 seats, a sharp drop from 303, necessitating reliance on 35 regional allies that form National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to achieve a total of 290 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament. A majority requires 272 seats.

The opposition alliance, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) led by main Congress party, made substantial gains, winning 230 seats, up from the 91 seats in the previous House.

The Congress party, the main opposition, led in 99 seats, an increase from the 52 seats in 2019.

The Samajwadi Party (SP), an ally of Congress, demonstrated a standout performance, leading in 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, compared to just five seats previously. The state sends 80 MPs to Indian parliament.

 Equally the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal also displayed stellar performance security 29 seats out of 42 seats in the state.

This shift was achieved by consolidating anti-BJP votes and reviving the coalition of Dalits (lower castes Hindus), marginalized castes, and Muslims.

Analysts suggest the BJP’s emphasis on constructing the Ram Temple on the demolished Babri Masjid site did not resonate as intended, particularly evidenced by the BJP’s loss in Ayodhya, the temple’s location.

They say, this indicates a potential voter fatigue with Modi’s unrelenting focus on Hindu nationalism at the expense of pressing economic issues.

For the first time, Modi will have to rely heavily on his allies, signaling potential concessions on various policy fronts. This reliance marks a significant shift from the BJP’s previous solo dominance over past 10 years and suggests a more complex governance landscape moving forward.

The seven-phase election, the world’s largest democratic exercise, began on April 19 and concluded on June 4, highlighting the immense scale and logistical challenges of Indian elections.

–Decline in dominance

The BJP’s ambitious slogan of ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ (This time to cross 400 mark) quickly lost its fervor as election results trickled in. The early trends indicated that the NDA was struggling to cross the 300-seat threshold. As results unfolded, it became evident that Prime Minister Modi might return to power for a third term, but without the resounding mandate anticipated.

Modi’s pledges to fast-track economic growth and elevate India to the world’s third-largest economy also failed to captivate the electorate as effectively as the 2019 campaign’s focus on national security and surgical strikes did.

The opposition parties effectively highlighted persisting economic challenges, joblessness and demand depression in rural areas and farm distress where most voters reside.

A key factor in the BJP’s diminished performance was the unprecedented unity among opposition parties under the INDIA bloc. This consolidation effectively neutralized the BJP’s advantage of a fragmented opposition vote. Recognizing this threat, the BJP repeatedly tried Hindu consolidation, raising imaginary fears of Muslims.

The united opposition managed to consolidate votes across various constituencies, significantly impeding the BJP’s ambitious electoral targets. Rahul Gandhi’s tempting offers, such as Rs 1 lakh to every poor woman and the abolition of the Agniveer military recruitment scheme, resonated with many voters. These promises, though financially extravagant, likely swayed a substantial segment of the electorate away from the BJP.

Modi’s major allies, senior politicians like Janata Dal (United) chief and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and Telugu Desam Party chief Chandrababu Naidu, may play crucial roles in the post-election coalition landscape. Both leaders have a history of switching alliances between the NDA and the opposition, raising questions about their potential influence as kingmakers.

The JD-U led in 15 of Bihar’s 40 seats, while the TDP was ahead in 16 of Andhra Pradesh’s 25 seats. Despite their current alignment with the NDA and supporting Modi, their history suggests they could potentially shift allegiance depending on the political climate. Both of them are also known as being fiercely secular, although both of them had supported the BJP-led government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee from 1998 to 2004.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election results mark a significant moment in Indian politics, signaling the end of the BJP’s era of unchallenged dominance. The return to coalition politics brings back an era of negotiation and compromise, reminiscent of India’s political landscape before Modi’s decisive mandate in 2014.

Modi’s government, freed from coalition constraints in its previous terms, had the latitude to implement significant reforms and drive economic growth. The return to coalition politics may introduce new challenges, requiring Modi and his party to adapt to a more collaborative and less centralized approach to governance.

-New reality

As the BJP adjusts to this new reality, the role of coalition partners will be critical. Leaders experienced in coalition politics, such as LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, have receded from the forefront, leaving a potential gap in managing new alliances. The next few days will see intense political maneuvering as both the BJP and the INDIA bloc vie for the support of key players like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu.

The fragile nature of coalition politics means that stability is not guaranteed. The opposition’s renewed vigor and the electorate’s message of caution to the BJP suggest that Indian politics is entering a period of greater uncertainty and dynamism.

The electorate’s message is clear: while they acknowledge the progress made under Modi’s leadership, they also expect greater inclusivity and attention to the diverse needs of India’s vast population, especially its minorities.

As India navigates this new political landscape, the coming months will be crucial in determining the direction of its governance and economic policies. The electorate has voiced its desire for a balanced approach, and the BJP will need to recalibrate its strategies to address the evolving political and economic realities of the nation.