‘Stuck in a swamp’: Saudi Arabia seeks exit from Yemen war

Dubai, United Arab Emirates (AFP):

Eight years after launching its military campaign in Yemen, Saudi Arabia wants to extricate itself from the conflict to focus on ambitious projects at home. However, hopes of lasting peace in Yemen remain slim.

The oil-rich monarchy gave a signal this month by announcing plans to resume ties with Iran, which backs Yemen’s Houthi rebels against the Saudi-supported government in a proxy war.

However, as Saudi Arabia instigates sweeping social and economic changes as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Vision 2030” reform, it “is seeking to shift its approach in Yemen from a military strategy to a soft security and political one”, said Ahmed Nagi, from the International Crisis Group.

Since the Saudi-led military intervention began on March 26, 2015, the kingdom has pounded Yemen with air strikes in a conflict that has triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, according to the United Nations.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed, directly or indirectly, with 4.5 million people internally displaced and more than two-thirds of the population living below the poverty line, according to UN estimates.

Nagi said that “military operations, such as air strikes” are now likely to cease, adding that the priority now is a “diplomatic solution”.

The Saudi-led intervention, which will mark its eighth anniversary on April 2, came after the Houthis took control of the capital Sanaa in 2014.

Rebranding project 

A UN-brokered ceasefire that took effect last April brought a sharp reduction in hostilities. Even though the truce expired in October, fighting has largely remained on hold.

Even before the truce, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis were engaging in back-channel negotiations, including talks in neutral neighbour Oman.

Riyadh’s top priority is securing border areas and stopping the drone and missile attacks that have targeted its oil facilities, analysts say.

“Saudi is currently negotiating with the Houthis to establish understandings that would enable it to secure its borderlands while maintaining influence” in areas controlled by Yemen’s government, Nagi said.

“This new approach could enable Saudi to remain the key actor in Yemen’s domestic politics, to ensure that no security threats can affect the kingdom in case conflict continues at the local level,” Nagi added.

The Saudi-led intervention’s stated aim was to protect civilians from Houthi attacks, restore the government and stop Yemen becoming a safe haven for Iranian-backed forces.

Eight years in, the rebels control swathes of the country and command an impressive arsenal of weapons that they have used to attack Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, another coalition member.

For Riyadh, the fallout jeopardises a rebranding project that aims to turn the conservative country into a hub for tourism and investment.

Saudi Arabia, relatively closed off for decades, is building a $500 billion futuristic new city, NEOM, and a swathe of holiday resorts and attractions.

“There is a huge focus in Saudi now on development, tourism, mega-projects,” said an analyst following the negotiations between Riyadh and Houthi officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak to the press.

For Riyadh, there is concern that “anything involving conflict” will harm investment and stability, the analyst added.

Many analysts are pessimistic that Riyadh’s plans for a downsized military role will bring peace to Yemen, which remains deeply fractured along religious, regional and political lines.

Saudi Arabia, nonetheless, has “decided to leave Yemen whatever the price is”, said an Arab diplomat in Riyadh. “They are… stuck in a swamp that is very costly on all levels.”