Leaked intel suggests US not confident Ukraine will quickly defeat Russia
WASHINGTON (AA) – Leaked apparent US intelligence documents suggest that the Biden administration is far from confident that Ukraine can quickly mount a counteroffensive that will oust Russian troops from the country.
The trove of documents, whose authenticity Washington has repeatedly declined to confirm or deny, has already thrown a wrench into many of the US’s most vital relations.
The latest tranche dates to February and March and shows a dour US assessment of Ukraine’s force posture, including an analysis of medium-range air defense missiles that are used to thwart Russian strikes.
The Ukrainian stockpile of those munitions could be “completely reduced by May 23,” according to one classified document cited by CNN. That would allow Russia to claim air superiority in Ukraine, which would have devastating effects for Ukraine’s ground forces that are expected to play the lead role in an expected spring counteroffensive.
But even as the documents raise questions over Ukrainian preparations, they similarly offer a downbeat assessment of Russian forces and predict a stalemate between the warring parties.
“Russia’s grinding campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting Moscow’s goal to capture the entire region in 2023,” one of the documents says, according to CNN.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has vowed to find the source of the unauthorized disclosures, pledging “to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this, and the extent of it.”
The Justice Department and Pentagon have opened investigations into how the cache was released without authorization and who might have been responsible.
They had been circulating on Discord, a messaging platform popular with videogame streamers, for at least a month before they were picked by the New York Times newspaper on April 5.
Many of the documents date back to March and relate to the war in Ukraine, including force and casualty levels for Kyiv and Moscow’s militaries. Others paint a dire picture of Ukraine’s munitions levels ahead of an expected counteroffensive to further roll back Russia’s occupation.
The Pentagon has maintained the documents pose “a very serious risk” to US national security and “have the potential to spread disinformation.”
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