Kashmir at crossroads: identity, resistance, and legacy of unkept promises

Election verdict in Kashmir is seen as resounding assertion with people choosing to express their discontent through voting after heavy clampdown on almost all other means of dissent

By Iftikhar Gilani

Nestled amid the soaring peaks of the Himalayas, Muslim-majority region of Jammu and Kashmir exudes an air of enduring mystique and complexity.

Yet beneath its picturesque landscapes lies a region marked by a protracted struggle for identity and an enduring resistance to external influence.

The recent assembly elections have brought these underlying tensions to the fore, exposing the depth of the local population’s resilience, protecting identity and their aspiration for self-governance.

The assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir that concluded recently were more than a routine electoral exercise; they represented a critical juncture in the region’s tumultuous history.

Despite India’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) extensive efforts to secure a foothold in the region through strategic campaigning and electoral engineering, the outcome revealed a clear rejection of their advances by the people in the Muslim-majority areas of the region.

The BJP’s failure was stark, with all its 19 candidates in the Kashmir Valley facing defeat, and most losing their deposits—an unequivocal sign of the party’s unpopularity in these regions. It, however, won massive mandate that is 29 seats in Hindu belt of Jammu region.

These elections served not only as a political contest but also as a referendum on Indian government’s decision in August 2019 to revoke Article 370. This controversial move stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its statehood and special autonomous status, reconstituting it into a union territory directly governed from New Delhi.

This decision was seen by many in the region as an erosion of their identity and rights, which had been safeguarded by the conditions of their accession to the Indian Union in 1947.

The strategic redrawing of electoral boundaries and the timing of the elections appeared meticulously designed to advantage the Hindu nationalist party. However, the people of Kashmir responded with a resounding assertion, choosing to express their discontent through the democratic process after heavy clampdown on almost all other means of dissent.

The overwhelming support for the regional National Conference (NC) was a clear indicator of the populace’s stance. Led by Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah, the NC secured 42 seats, including seven seats in Jammu, signaling broad-based support for their advocacy of greater autonomy and resistance to New Delhi’s direct control.

Historical background

The historical backdrop to these elections is rich and poignant.

In 1995, during another politically charged period, Farooq Abdullah was negotiating with New Delhi for the restoration of the region’s autonomy to its pre-1953 status, when New Delhi could have control only on defense and foreign affairs.

However, the political landscape shifted dramatically with the rise of the BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, leading to the rejection of the autonomy resolution adopted by the regional assembly overwhelmingly in 2000. These oscillations between promises made and promises broken have become a recurring motif in Kashmir’s history, fostering a deep sense of betrayal among its people.

India’s main Opposition Congress party’s tepid performance in these elections underscores another layer of the region’s complex political fabric. Aligning with the NC, the Congress was expected to consolidate secular votes and challenge the BJP’s dominance in Jammu.

However, its lackluster campaign and vague electoral promises resulted in a disappointing outcome, with the party securing only six seats—all from Muslim-majority constituencies.

This election has also highlighted the entrenched communal divisions within the state, with Hindu-majority areas predominantly supporting the BJP, while Muslim-majority regions backed the NC and other regional parties.

Despite the challenges, the spirit of hope persists among the people of Kashmir. This election was seen as a critical moment for them to affirm their identity and demographic integrity in the face of external pressures.

But analysts say NC’s victory could be a win-win situation for both the people of Kashmir and New Delhi in a short-term strategy.

For the locals, it represents an opportunity to resist changes imposed from outside and to breathe freely within a familiar political framework.

For New Delhi, the NC’s moderate stance provides relief that it  will not cross red lines to create a constitutional crises for India.

The election also brought to light the strategic voting pattern of the electorate, particularly their rejection of opportunistic politics, showcases a mature and sophisticated voter base keen on substantive representation.

As the newly elected representatives take office, they face the formidable task of negotiating with New Delhi for the restoration of statehood and possibly revisiting Article 370. The demands for autonomy and the respect for regional identity are likely to be central to the political discourse in the coming years.

Omar Abdullah, now backed by a strong mandate, finds himself at a critical juncture. He has the opportunity to press the Indian government for the release of political prisoners and the repeal of repressive laws imposed by previous administrations and also to start credible negotiations with Pakistan and other stakeholders to address the larger issue of Kashmir.

His leadership can create a conducive atmosphere for dialogue with both Pakistan and the local populace, steps necessary for forging a lasting resolution to the Kashmir issue.

However, the influence of the Lieutenant Governor remains significant, and the dynamics between the elected government and the Lieutenant Governor will be pivotal in shaping the region’s administrative efficacy and political stability.

How effectively Omar Abdullah navigates this relationship will be crucial in determining his ability to fulfill the promises made to the people of Kashmir.

As Kashmir stands at this historic crossroads, the elections are not just a reflection of current political preferences but a reassertion of the region’s enduring quest for dignity, autonomy, and self-governance.

The path ahead is fraught with challenges, yet it also offers the promise of a new chapter in the history of Kashmir—one that could be marked by reconciliation, peace, and the fulfillment of long-standing aspirations.