Greenland gambit: Race for Arctic supremacy

The world will be watching Greenland closely, knowing that whoever controls this icy expanse could hold the key to the 21st century’s most vital resources and routes

By Iftikhar Gilani

The global community has been left both amused and perplexed at Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect’s idea of buying Greenland, the largest island in the world. This also coincided with his son, Donald Trump Jr., landing on the icy terrain in Trump Force One this week.

Coupled with Trump’s Florida press conference suggesting military force might be an option to acquire the semi-autonomous Danish territory, Greenland’s strategic importance has once again taken center stage.

But the Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede said his territory may demand independence from Denmark, but would not become part of the United States.

Spanning over 2 million square kilometers, Greenland is the world’s largest island and home to some of the planet’s most sought-after resources.

Beneath its melting ice sheet lies an estimated 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, 30% of the world’s gas resources, and a treasure trove of minerals including gold, zinc, iron, diamonds, and rare earth elements.

For Arctic nations and ambitious powers like China, this region is a golden goose that promises economic and strategic supremacy.

“Greenland’s resources are a key to the future of Arctic geopolitics,” says Elizabeth Buchanan, a polar geopolitics expert.

“An increased Western presence here could alter the dynamics for states like China and Russia, potentially sparking an arms race in the region.”

Adding fuel to the fire, the U.S. Geological Survey’s projection of vast untapped reserves in Greenland underscores why Arctic nations—and others beyond—are sharpening their focus on the Arctic Circle.

Eight countries currently exercise sovereignty within the Arctic Circle: the United States, Denmark (via Greenland), Canada, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland.

Together, these nations form the Arctic Council, a high-level intergovernmental forum addressing challenges in the region, including the concerns of indigenous peoples. However, the true “Arctic Five”—the coastal nations Denmark, Russia, Norway, Canada, and the U.S.—are at the forefront of claiming the Arctic’s spoils.

Yet, external powers such as China are keen to challenge the traditional ownership narrative. Beijing has been vocal about applying the South Pole Principle—which allows access to all but prohibits ownership—to the Arctic.

China’s ambitions have even led it to self-identify as a “near-Arctic state.” India, too, has signaled its interest in the Arctic’s resources, further complicating the geopolitical chessboard.

As climate change accelerates the melting of Arctic ice, new opportunities are also emerging for shipping and trade. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia’s northern coast, has seen a surge in maritime traffic.

Recently, Chinese container ships Flying Fish 1 and NewNew Star crossed paths near the North Pole, highlighting the potential for reduced transit times between Asia and Europe.

“With the ice retreating, these routes could soon rival traditional shipping lanes like the Suez Canal,” Buchanan notes.

Danish shipping giant Maersk’s trial run along the NSR in 2018 proved that this route could significantly cut travel time, enhancing its commercial viability.

Russia and China have already joined forces to capitalize on this potential. Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear agency, has partnered with Hainan Yangpu NewNew Shipping to operate a year-round Arctic shipping line.

This collaboration includes building new ice-class container ships, signaling a long-term commitment to Arctic dominance.

Status of Greenland

Greenland’s geopolitical importance is not lost on its leaders. Since gaining self-rule in 1979, the island has been navigating its complex relationship with Denmark, to which it remains tied as part of the Danish Commonwealth.

While there is no overt tension between Greenland and Denmark, Copenhagen-based author and journalist Martin Breum, who has extensively researched Arctic issues, believes the relationship is one of careful balancing.

“Greenland and Denmark are striving to redefine their relationship rather than engaging in a power struggle,” Breum explains.

Nonetheless, a 2013 report by a U.S. think tank speculated that Greenland might eventually seek full independence.

“Does this suggest the U.S. might encourage Greenland to assert itself more against Copenhagen? Possibly,” an informed observer notes.

The prospect of Greenland’s independence raises questions about its alliances. In 2023, Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt led a delegation to China, signaling growing ties between Nuuk and Beijing.

During her visit, she discussed strengthening economic and trade cooperation, tourism, and Arctic collaboration. Such moves hint at Greenland’s desire to diversify its partnerships while leveraging its strategic location.

The Arctic’s strategic significance extends beyond resources and trade routes.

In 2007, Russia planted its flag on the North Pole’s seabed using a robotic submersible, a symbolic act that underscored its claims to the region. The U.S. and Canada, too, have been exploring and drilling in the Arctic for decades, emphasizing its military and political importance.

Trump’s suggestion of using military force to acquire Greenland—though controversial—reflects a broader trend of Arctic militarization. As countries vie for dominance, the region is becoming a flashpoint for global power struggles. Insurance premiums for Arctic shipping, for instance, could rise dramatically if tensions escalate, Buchanan warns.

Greenland’s emergence as a coveted prize is no coincidence. Beyond its resource wealth, the island’s location makes it a strategic outpost for monitoring and controlling Arctic activity.

This has led to a surge in exploration and development licenses granted to oil and gas giants like Russia’s Gazprom, Norway’s Statoil, and Scotland’s Cairn.

However, commercial exploitation of Greenland’s resources remains a challenge. The harsh Arctic conditions, with temperatures plummeting to minus 50 degrees Celsius, and the logistical difficulties of extraction have stalled progress. Still, with technological advancements and rising demand for energy and minerals, these barriers may soon be overcome.

As the geopolitical stakes in the Arctic continue to rise, Greenland finds itself at the epicenter of a high-stakes game. For now, it remains a semi-autonomous territory within the Danish Commonwealth, but its future could reshape the global order.

Whether it chooses to strengthen ties with traditional allies like Denmark and the U.S. or forge new partnerships with powers like China, Greenland’s decisions will have far-reaching implications.

“The Arctic is no longer a remote frontier; it is a critical arena for global politics,” Breum concludes.

As nations maneuver for control over its resources and trade routes, the world will be watching Greenland closely, knowing that whoever controls this icy expanse could hold the key to the 21st century’s most vital resources and routes.