Assad fall a dramatic shift in region’s power dynamics

As Jolani navigates complex dynamics, the eyes of the world remain fixed on Syria, hopeful for a resolution that brings lasting peace and dignity to its people

Muslim Network TV Analysis

ANKARA (MNTV) – The unfolding events in Damascus represent a pivotal moment not only for Syria but for the entire Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. The sudden downfall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime after over a decade of civil war, precipitated by a rapid series of military successes by opposition forces, marks a dramatic shift in the region’s power dynamics.

The fall of Assad was catalyzed by a surprising tactical retreat by Hezbollah forces around Aleppo in late November 2024, echoing similar withdrawals that have historically preceded major regional shifts.

This strategic pullback allowed opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to advance rapidly. By early December, they had encircled Damascus, and by the 1st, the city was effectively under their control.

The final takeover on a serene Sunday morning was not just the end of Assad’s 24-year rule but also marked the cessation of the Baath Party’s six-decade dominance over Syrian politics.

In an atmosphere charged with jubilation and newfound hope, the streets of Damascus transformed overnight from zones of silence and fear into arenas of celebration.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the enigmatic leader of HTS, has emerged as a central figure in the post-Assad era.

Once known for his associations with more radical elements, Jolani’s recent actions and statements suggest a pivot towards a more pragmatic and disciplined approach to leadership. His directive to protect public institutions and his restraint from immediate radical reforms have been seen as positive first steps towards establishing a stable governance structure.

However, Jolani faces significant challenges. The complexities of transitioning from a military commander to a head of state are manifold, especially in a country fragmented by long-term conflict and sectarian divisions.

The international community, while cautiously optimistic, remains wary and is closely monitoring Jolani’s approach to governance, human rights, and democratic inclusion.

On the international front, the reactions have been mixed.

Regional powers like Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have emphasized the need for a political solution that includes all factions of Syrian society.

The United States and European Union have expressed concern about the future role of HTS and have called for a transparent transition process that ensures the rights and safety of all Syrian citizens.

The situation has put significant pressure on Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran, who are now reassessing their positions and strategies in the region. The loss of Assad is a major geopolitical setback for Iran, which has heavily invested in propping up the regime as a critical ally in the Levant. Russia, meanwhile, finds itself needing to negotiate its continued presence and influence in Syria amid a changing political landscape.

In Damascus, symbolic acts such as the storming of Sednaya Prison, a notorious site of torture and executions under Assad, have underscored the emotional and societal catharsis taking place. The release of political prisoners and the reuniting of families have brought personal and communal histories of suffering and resilience to the forefront, serving as poignant reminders of the regime’s brutal legacy.

Amidst these transformative events, the future of Syria remains uncertain. The challenges of rebuilding a nation devastated by war, addressing deep-seated sectarian tensions, and establishing a new political order are daunting.

The success of this new phase will heavily depend on the ability of Jolani and other leaders to forge a path toward reconciliation and inclusive governance.

In Turkish border town of Kilis, Syrian refugee Yasmin watches developments unfold, her feelings are a microcosm of the cautious hope that permeates across Syrian communities. The potential for a stable and inclusive Syria is on the horizon, but the journey towards it is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.

The world watches keenly, hoping that Syria’s new chapter will be one of peace and rebuilding, rather than a continuation of the strife that has marked its recent history.

Whether Damascus will emerge as a beacon of hope or slip into chaos, akin to post-invasion Baghdad, remains one of the key questions facing the international community today.

The narrative of Syria is at a critical juncture, with the actions taken in the next few months likely to determine the long-term stability and prosperity of the region.

As Jolani navigates these complex dynamics, the eyes of the world remain fixed on Syria, hopeful for a resolution that brings lasting peace and dignity to its people.