Reimagining Indian politics: Role of technology and narrative in shaping elections

It is crucial to scrutinize ethical dimensions strategies laced with technology when a leader uses them to spread misinformation and hatred between communities

By Iftikhar Gilani

During the 2014 general elections, in the bustling town of Samastipur in the northern state of Bihar, I discovered that the cabin of the manager of a cinema hall turns into a vibrant hub of political discourse in the evenings.

This place, teeming with political workers and intellectuals, offered a unique insight into the dynamics of Indian elections. As the discussion here centered on the impact of a possible Narendra Modi victory, a local political worker commented that it would change the election campaign not just in India, but in the world.

The importance of Delhi-based journalists in these provinces cannot be underestimated. Having direct access to the corridors of power, they are often regarded with a mixture of awe and respect.

As an uninvited guest at this meeting, I asked this political worker to explain. He said that this battle is between human emotion and technology.

“Modi has unleashed the technology, the manipulations and the brand, not the traditional campaign tactics,” he said.

Modi had effectively used social media to influence public opinion by mixing strategic misinformation with half-truths to sway the electorate, he said.

The roots of this tactic go back to Keshavbhai Patel, a leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Modi’s mentor. In the 1995 provincial elections in Gujarat, he used small camcorders and local cable networks to influence voters in Gujarat. He brought the election campaign into the living rooms of the voters.

Those days camcorders used to invite heavy custom duties. The solution they devised was to invite many expatriate Gujaratis living in the U.S and U.K., who came along with camcorders. It was a usual scene to see non-Indian Gujaratis holding camcorders in the election meetings of the BJP and relaying thought cables.

This innovative approach, using technology to engage directly with voters, was in stark contrast to the Congress’s more traditional and lackluster campaigning. Since then, the BJP has ruled the state uninterrupted.

However, the true architect of modern election campaign strategy in India is Prashant Kishor, who returned home in 2011 after a stint at the UN. With his background in data analysis and campaign strategy, Kishor brought scientific precision to the campaign.

His techniques, which he honed during Modi’s 2012 Gujarat campaign, were revolutionary, focusing on mobile technology and data to tailor political messages with unprecedented accuracy.

Although Kishor later distanced himself from Modi, his strategies have been adopted and adapted by various political organizations. He has worked with political figures from across the spectrum, including Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar, the then Congress leader Amarinder Singh in Punjab in 2017 and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, creating tailored campaigns that resonate with local voters.

-Evolving strategies

Shivam Shankar Singh, a colleague of Kishor, has elaborated on these evolving strategies in his book “How to Win Elections in India”. He has discussed the strategic portrayal of Modi as a ‘tea seller’ during the 2014 elections.

He said this portrayal was not accidental but carefully crafted to appeal to the common man and counter the elitist image of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

This narrative, coupled with a robust online and on-the-ground campaign, created a pervasive atmosphere of negativity towards the Congress and effectively used repetition and modern technology to sway public opinion.

Singh’s insights go beyond narrative design to the mechanics of campaign management.

He shares his experience of managing Amarinder Singh’s campaign for the 2017 assembly elections in Punjab and advises Singh to downplay his royal image in favor of his military title “Captain” to better connect with the common voter. This approach, combined with direct targeting of voters, proved successful and illustrated the power of personalized and responsive campaign strategies.

Singh also left Prashant Kishore’s team to join the BJP, which tasked him with devising campaign strategies for India’s northeastern states. His team’s use of data to categorize polling booths and adjust resource allocation showed the power of combining technology and on-the-ground engagement.

In this region, the challenge was a large Muslim population in Assam and two decades of communist rule in the nearby state of Tripura. Through the manipulations, the BJP rendered the Muslim votes in Assam ineffective and toppled the communist government in Tripura, which was led by a simple and honest Chief Minister Manik Sarkar.

By tailoring its strategies to local sentiments and using social media effectively, it managed to drastically change public opinion. The BJP won in Tripura and its vote share increased from just one percent to 36%.

-RSS on the back of the BJP

Singh also credits the power of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) for the BJP’s victories. The RSS has appointed pana pramukhs across the country who are in charge of one page of the electoral roll, 60 voters to be precise. They are foot soldiers who collect data and keep in touch with the voters.

Once the election strategists have entered the castes and religions of the voters into the software, the next step is to get their phone numbers from digital brokers, which they get from ordinary employees of telecom companies or SIM card dealers.

There are currently 535 million WhatsApp users in India. Singh says that unlike other countries, voters in India take pride in being a member of a group and trust the messages exchanged in the groups. Singh warns that this is a dangerous trend.

But Singh also warns of the dangers associated with these strategies. The rapid spread of misinformation across social media platforms, such as an incident in 2018 where a video falsely portrayed a conflict as a religious attack, highlights the explosive nature of narrative-driven politics.

On September 2, 2018, a video of a poor beggar was circulated showing a Hindu godman being beaten up by Muslims. The rumor mill was churning on all social media platforms.

When the police clarified a day later that the man was not a Hindu ascetic but a drug addict who had molested a Hindu woman, and that the woman’s brother and her husband had beaten him up, this had already triggered hysteria against Muslims.

Singh says it is not just about the technique but also about the narratives that are woven into the campaigns. The BJP focuses on building a Hindu narrative, often at the expense of Muslims.

From his own experience, he says that they were always asked to remind Hindus that a mosque was built by Muslim king by demolishing a Hindu temple. This is not a random slogan but a trademark of the BJP.

The results of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections, in which the BJP and its allies won 325 out of 400 seats without fielding a single Muslim candidate.

Singh believes that increasing polarization will benefit the party as the BJP wants to win elections by retaining its Hindu constituency.

Besides Muslims, intellectuals belonging to the left wing are also classified as enemies, and Modi himself has used terms like “urban Naxals” and “gangs splitting the nation” to describe them.

There has been an attempt to create a narrative for the poor that they are poor because previous governments have appeased Muslims. The recent affirmative action program of the Congress-led Karnataka government for poor Muslims is being portrayed by Modi as taking away resources from the backward Hindu castes. Ironically this program is in practice for over 30 years and for a decade BJP has been also in power in the state.

The prime minister is also telling Hindu voters that Muslims are producing many children to take away their hard earned resources.

-Hindu narrative has social costs

The BJP’s focus on a Hindu-centric narrative, often at the expense of other communities, raises ethical questions. While such strategies are electorally effective, they have significant long-term social costs and challenge the ethical boundaries of modern political campaigning.

As we move towards more technologically sophisticated and narrative-driven campaigns, the role of strategists like Kishor and Singh will undoubtedly grow.

However, it is crucial to question the ethical dimensions of their strategies when a leader uses them to spread misinformation and hate between communities. The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) poses an even greater challenge.

The question is whether these advances will lead to a more transparent and informed electorate or whether they will give leaders leverage to increase the potential for manipulation.

The changing landscape of Indian politics, driven by technological innovation and strategic narratives, offers both opportunities and challenges and is a lesson for the world at large.

As political parties adapt to these new realities, it is imperative that voters become more discerning and critical of the information they consume. The future of Indian democracy may depend on maintaining a delicate balance between effective persuasion and ethical governance.