Decisive local elections in Turkiye

Istanbul, Turkey’s vibrant metropolis and economic center, has become the focal point of this election campaign

By Iftikhar Gilani

ANKARA – The battle lines are being drawn in Turkiye’s 81 provinces as the country prepares for Sunday’s crucial local elections.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is contesting hard in an attempt to recapture major cities such as Istanbul and Ankara that slipped from its grasp in 2019.

This election is crucial, not only for the local administration but also as a fundamental gauge of democracy and national leadership.

Istanbul, Turkey’s vibrant metropolis and economic center, has become the focal point of this election campaign. President Erdoğan’s campaign is a juggernaut, relentless in pace and scope, reflecting the intensity of his presidential campaign.

President Erdoğan, who claims that this election could be the last of his political career, is determined to see his party win and envisions a development contest between Turkey’s cities.

He is mobilizing with full force to win over the base for his AK Party, which has so far been dependent on his charisma.

Murat Kurum, Erdoğan’s former minister of environment and urban affairs, is in a razor-thin race for mayor of Istanbul against incumbent Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

The polls point to an extremely close fight, the outcome of which will determine future political developments.

With around 16 million inhabitants, Isranbul is seen as a melting pot of different cultures, ideologies, and socio-economic backgrounds.

Erdoğan’s path to Türkiye’s presidency also began in this city, where he was elected mayor in 1994. His allies held the city until Imamoğlu gained control.

However, compared to the last election, Imamoğlu is likely to suffer from the collapse of the National Alliance, according to experts.

Since the last election, Imamoğlu’s party, the CHP, has been left in the lurch by former allies who fielded their candidates in the local elections, notably the nationalist Good Party  and the Kurdish Green Left Party (YSP).

Political analysts assume that the winner of the mayoral elections in Istanbul will also be a candidate for the 2028 presidential elections.

The race for mayor of Ankara mirrors that of Istanbul, with current mayor Mansur Yavaş of the CHP holding a slight lead over his rival from the AK Party.

Meanwhile, in İzmir, Turkey’s third largest city and a CHP bastion, a fierce contest is being fought as President Erdoğan tries to put the opposition in its place with his candidate known for his grassroots popularity.

This region has long been considered a stronghold of the opposition CHP. Erdoğan has nominated his right-hand man Hamza Daa as the candidate for mayor of this city, who is known for his openness, friendly attitude, and interaction with the people.

The AK Party is confident about its prospects in Central Anatolia and the Black Sea regions, while the CHP seems to retain its stronghold on the Aegean coast.

More than 61 million voters will go to the polls, including over a million young Turks voting for the first time and a predominantly female electorate.

There are over 10.5 million eligible voters in Istanbul alone, underlining the city’s huge political and economic influence.

The outcome of the election is expected to be a litmus test of Erdogan’s popularity and his ability to maintain control and initiate constitutional reforms that he had promised during his presidential race.

Analysts believe that a victory in Istanbul for Erdogan whose legacy is intertwined with the city, would symbolize more than just a political triumph — it would be a reassertion of control over a city that is also a microcosm of Turkey itself.

The upcoming election will not only test popular support for all competing parties, but also decide the direction of the country.

The AK Party, which has more than 11 million members nationwide, plans to focus its program on strategically important provinces, particularly by commissioning small groups to make house calls to establish face-to-face communication.

More than 61 million people are eligible to vote, and 1 million young voters will cast their ballots for the first time in this election.

More than 50% of voters are women, while men make up 49.1% of the electorate according to statistics.

More than 3.3 million voters are aged 75 and over. The majority of the electorate is located in 30 major cities, while more than 13.5 million voters cast their ballots in 51 other cities.

Unlike last year’s presidential election, the opposition is no longer united, but polls suggest the race is tightening across the country.