Hurry in U.S. to arm India to contain China

By Iftikhar Gilani

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in the U.S. on Wednesday for a three-day state visit, carrying a long list of defense deals worth billions of dollars. He will also urge Washington to share key technologies and set up defense production facilities in India.

The U.S. government is in a hurry to arm India to the teeth to contain China and defend its interests in the region. However, this move is bound to not only trigger an arms race in the entire Asia-Pacific region, but there are looming questions, whether India will ever oblige the U.S. to join any military alliance to protect its interests in the region. 

According to reports from New Delhi, where preparations for Modi’s visit are taking final shape, deals worth $25 billion are expected to be on the table in addition to the procurement of critical technology.

Although both countries had signed the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) in 2012, the U.S. refrained from exchanging critical technologies because of India’s close ties with Russia.

While U.S. Defense Secretary Jain Lloyd J. Austin has already announced that the Biden administration may give its final approval to joint production of the GE F 414 engines with India, Modi has a long shopping list in hand that includes the procurement of missiles, aircraft, armored vehicles, artillery, smart munitions, drones, and surveillance systems, as well as an agreement on maintenance, repair, and overhaul of American systems. This will result in other countries in the region that have American weapons stockpiles relying on India for their repair and overhaul.

According to retired Maj. Gen. Jagatbir Singh, the Indo-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS -X), a new initiative to promote cooperation in advanced technology, will be launched by the U.S.-India Business Council on Wednesday.

It is designed to complement existing intergovernmental cooperation by fostering innovative partnerships between U.S. and Indian companies, investors, startup accelerators, and academic research institutions.

The U.S. goal is to bring India’s military capabilities to a level that fits into the next stage of U.S. integrated deterrence, known as the Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2) strategy.

India is also pushing for an early procurement of 30 MQ-9B Predator drones worth $3 billion. That contract has been signed with manufacturer General Atomics, but delivery is pending due to a lack of U.S. government approval.

-Largest importer of defense equipment

India has become one of the largest importers of defense equipment. Defense equipment purchased by the U.S. so far includes the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft, C17 Globemaster, Boeing’s Apache attack helicopters AH -64, Chinook helicopters CH -47, P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft, and M777 howitzers.

Joint working groups that have met recently have focused on defense industrial cooperation, joint ventures, technology transfers, and co-production agreements to build aircraft carriers, jet engines, and chemical-biological protection equipment.

In September 2021, Modi met with General Atomics’ Indian origin chief Vivek Lall, who reportedly currently plays a very important role in pushing defense deals.

According to the Financial Express, Lall had secured military deals for India during his career at Boeing, including the delivery of P8I anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft worth $3 billion for the Indian Navy, 10 C-17 (military transport) aircraft worth $4 billion, Harpoon anti-ship missiles worth $200 million, AH -64E Apache Guardian Attack and CH -47F (I) Chinook helicopters for the Indian Air Force (IAF) worth $ 5 billion. When he was appointed vice president of strategy and business development at Lockheed Martin (LM) Aeronautics, he led talks to finalize the long-pending MH60R submarine helicopters for the Indian Navy. 

All of these deals are awaiting approval by the Biden administration.

India is perhaps the only country that, on the one hand, seeks joint defense production with the U.S. and, on the other hand, has similar joint production facilities with Russia. India is jointly producing the BrahMos supersonic missile and the Arihant-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) with Russia, completing its nuclear triad. 

While there is no evidence yet that Russia has used the Indian-made BrahMos missiles in Ukraine, it has used its P-800 Oniks variant with impunity.

According to reports from New Delhi, the GE F 414 engine deal will be a major outcome of Modi’s trip to the U.S. This engine will be used for the Tejas light combat aircraft, India’s only indigenous fighter. It is said that future variants, as well as the fifth generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, will be equipped with the F414 engines from GE. India’s attempt to build the indigenous Kaveri engine had run into problems and could not be developed.

In 2010, India signed a similar agreement with Russia to jointly develop a new engine for the Tejas. Earlier, in 2007, they had agreed to jointly develop a fifth-generation aircraft, which was named Sukhoi/ HAL FGFA. However, India withdrew from the Russian project in 2020 in anticipation of participation in the U.S.-led F-35 program.

According to experts, however, there is a possibility that the Modi government has kept open the option of seeking both the U.S. F-35 and the Russian Su-57 platform, by exploiting Washington’s vulnerabilities vis-à-vis China. 

Russian equipment, weapons, and platforms still account for 86% of all military equipment, weapons, and platforms deployed in India.

-U.S. and Russian equipment 

India is also perhaps the only country to have procured not only the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2018 but also Raytheon’s National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System-2 (NASAMS-2) from the U.S. for the Air Force to reinforce the country’s missile defense shield.

Experts believe the S-400 is intended to protect against Chinese missiles, while the U.S. NASAMS would prevent penetration by attack aircraft from Pakistan.

Each S-400 regiment consists of two batteries with four launchers each, giving a total of 40 launchers for five regiments. The S-400 can launch four different missiles: the long-range 40N6 missile, with a range of 400 kilometers (249 miles); the long-range 48N6 missile, with a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles); the medium-range 9M96E2 missile, with a range of 120 kilometers (75 miles); and the short-range 9M96E missile, with a range of 40 kilometers.

According to Indian plans, the NASAMS was to be deployed in border areas to protect sensitive military installations to prevent aerial clashes, similar to the one between Indian and Pakistani fighter jets on Feb. 27, 2019, that led to the downing of India’s MiG-21 Bison and the arrest of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. In this context, India also accidentally shot down its own Mi-17 helicopter, killing two pilots and four personnel.

Surprisingly, in 2019, the U.S. suspended its NATO ally Türkiye from the F-35 fighter jet program over its decision to purchase Russian S-400s and imposed technological sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). No action was, however, taken against India.

Türkiye has been a key member of NATO since joining the Alliance in 1952. It has the second-largest army after the U.S. at NATO and has protected the southeastern flank of the alliance for decades.

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, the director of the Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, acknowledged that the balancing of relations between Russia and the U.S. is a test for the Indian establishment.

The CAATSA law, pushed by Democrats during former President Donald Trump’s tenure, authorizes the U.S. government to impose financial sanctions and travel bans on any country or official involved in significant arms or intelligence deals with Russia, Iran, or North Korea.

Sections 231 and 235 of the Act require the U.S. President to take actions that include halting lines of credit from the U.S.; canceling or blocking the sale of licensed goods and technology; banning banks, manufacturers, and suppliers, as well as real estate transactions with the sanctioned country, making trade more difficult; and imposing financial and visa sanctions on certain officials.

The U.S. had previously waived sanctions to allow India to use the Iranian port of Chabahar as an alternative gateway to Afghanistan after other sanctions had already been imposed on Iranian companies and oil companies.

It is feared that other countries such as Saudi Arabia, which are seeking to sign similar defense agreements with Russia, will also seek similar exemptions. Riyadh is negotiating the purchase of the more advanced S-550, which is designed to detect and intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles from a greater distance than the S-500.

-Can India deliver U.S. expectations 

By turning a blind eye to India’s ongoing contacts with Russia, the U.S. wants India to play an active role in the Asia-Pacific region, which the U.S. has renamed the Indo-Pacific. Experts in New Delhi said India is not ready to move beyond the threats emanating from China in Himalayas and in immediate Indian Ocean to keep the Malacca Straits open to allow free flow of trade. 

The U.S., on the other hand, sees the China threat in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Moreover, India is unwilling to join an alliance and wants to retain its strategic sovereignty, while the U.S. wants to join the alliance.

For the U.S., the Indo-Pacific region stretches from its west coast across Australia to the shores of the Middle East and the edges of Europe. On the sidelines of the recent Shangri-La Dialog on June 3, Lloyd Austin met with his Japanese, Australian, and Philippine counterparts. Therefore, the big question is whether President Biden will succeed in convincing Modi to join the U.S.-led alliance and represent its interests wholeheartedly throughout the Asia-Pacific region.