Saudi-Iran deal no ‘magic wand’ for Yemen, experts warn

Dubai, Taez (AFP):

Saudi Arabia and Iran rapprochement is no “magic wand” for Yemen, analysts say, warning there are no easy solutions for the complex conflict in the Arab world’s poorest country.

The move to restore diplomatic ties has raised hopes of an easing in tensions across the region and especially in Yemen, where the heavyweight rivals have been fighting what amounts to a proxy war.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized control of the capital in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led intervention the following year and fighting that has left hundreds of thousands dead and caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

However, in a country that has long endured upheaval and is fractured along confessional, regional and political lines, even the withdrawal of Saudi and Iranian influence would not solve all the problems.

“The Saudi-Iran deal is a constructive step, but it won’t in itself resolve the Yemen conflict, at least not in the short term,” Elizabeth Kendall, a Yemen expert from Cambridge University’s Girton College said.

“This is because the Yemen conflict was ultimately domestically generated around questions of who controls power, territory and resources.”

Yemen’s problems range from a collapsed economy with millions dependent on aid to a significant Al-Qaeda presence as well as breakaway moves in the south, which was a separate, communist-ruled country from 1967 to 1990.

‘Will not prevent war’ 

The Saudi-backed government, forced south to the port city of Aden, cautiously welcomed Friday’s announcement, expressing hope for “a new phase of relations in the region, starting with Iran’s cessation of interference in Yemeni affairs”.

Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdel Salam, stressed that “the region needs the return of normal relations between its countries”.

Reaction from the Yemeni public appeared mixed. Altaf Ali, a woman from the Houthi-held capital Sanaa, said: “God willing, the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be a good sign for the Arab world and the world, and in particular for Yemenis and Yemen to end the war.”

But in the besieged government-held third city of Taez, Abdulhakim Mugalis said: “I do not think that any (diplomatic) relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will make a comprehensive peace (in the region).

“It may make a temporary truce according to certain agreements for a short period, but it will not prevent war or make a comprehensive and lasting peace at all in Yemen.”

Fighting in Yemen calmed markedly after a UN-brokered ceasefire came into effect last April, and has remained largely on hold even after the agreement lapsed in October.

Saudi Arabia has been holding behind-the-scenes, Omani-sponsored talks with the Houthis for months, according to Yemeni and regional sources who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter.

According to Maged al-Madhaji, director of the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, the Saudi-Iran deal isn’t a “magic wand” for the problems facing Yemen.

“The solution to Yemen will only come through a multilateral dialogue with the presence of Saudi Arabia, the UAE (an important member of the Saudi-led coalition), the Houthis, Iran” and others, he said.

Ahmed Nagi, a researcher at the International Crisis Group Institute, also said the Saudi-Iran detente does “not mean a complete end to all the complexities of the conflict”.