Nigerians vote in most unpredictable election in years

Lagos, Nigeria (AFP):

Nigerians will vote for a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari on Saturday in an unprecedented race between three frontrunners battling to govern Africa’s most populous democracy.

After eight years under Buhari, Nigeria still faces huge challenges, from attacks by militants and separatists, a sluggish economy and growing poverty, leaving many Nigerians desperate for change.

The new leader of Africa’s top oil producer and its largest economy will inherit a bewildering set of security and financial problems.

Buhari’s ruling All Progressives Congress or the APC is fielding Bola Tinubu, 70, a long-time kingmaker who points to his success as Lagos governor and claims “It is my turn”.

Touting his business acumen to “rescue” Nigeria, opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate former vice president Atiku Abubakar, 76, is on his sixth bid to claim Aso Rock’s presidential villa.

Labour Party’s Peter Obi, a surprise third candidate, has upset the APC and PDP’s dominance with an appeal to younger voters and opened up the most unpredictable election in years — and the possibility of a run-off for the first time since the end of military rule in 1999.

Another development has been sudden cash shortages at banks after the central bank ordered old naira currency notes to be replaced by new bills to curb corruption and inflation.

The cash scarcity just days before the vote has left many Nigerians angry with Buhari’s government as they struggle to shop at markets and travel to work.

Long lines outside banks erupted into riots in several cities, and the crisis deepened splits in the APC, where some see a political plot to undermine its candidate.

“I don’t know what is happening to the country,” said businessman Mohammed Badawa, trying to get cash in the northern city of Kano. “We just have to endure it and in the election vote in a new government.”

Nigerian elections have often been marred by violence, political and ethnic tensions as well as logistical problems.

In 2019, the Independent National Electoral Commission or INEC delayed voting for a week hours before polling stations opened.

Despite warnings about violence from armed groups, and fuel and cash shortages, INEC’s chief says Saturday’s vote will go ahead on time.

More than 93 million people are registered to vote on Saturday in the presidential election as well as parliamentary and senate ballots.

Nearly 10 million new voters have registered, most of them under 34, a younger electorate who will play an influential role if they turn out.

To win the presidency, a candidate must secure the most votes and also win at least 25 percent in two thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the federal capital area.

That reflects the makeup of a nation split between the mostly Muslim north and the Christian south and with three main ethnic groups: Yorubas mostly in the southwest, Hausas in the north and Igbos in the southeast.

With such a close race, some experts are already forecasting a possible, unprecedented second-round run-off, which would be held in 21 days.